See also Google AI Bard, on upgrading roads, USA,

and Google Bard road upgrades Australia

Tim Fraser, Councillor for Division 7 wrote this on the Forestdale Facebook page:

“What is everyone's thoughts on the Johnson Rd upgrade. It sounds great if you want to get somewhere quicker but have you considered the extra noise. I am sure Westland Crt, Nottingham, Lincoln Green, Dundee Dr, Johnson Rd etc residents may have an opinion.

If the intention is 4 x lanes that won't be ideal. That would be encouraging more traffic to avoid the toll road. I don't know what other alternative there is but share your thoughts. I am positive years ago there was a local traffic only sign that has been removed. Does anyone remember this? Lets not turn this into a heated discussion though, I am just asking the community the pros and cons. Tim

Frazer - Councillor Division 7”

I do not want Johnson Rd Upgraded for a number of reasons. But the prime one is that it will not achieve the purported aim that Tim Fraser assumed. That of getting somewhere quicker.

History has shown that upgrading any road does not allow the average road user to get anywhere any quicker, both in the short term and the long term.

However it may allow the driver to get somewhere quicker for a few years.

To upgrade a road, means road works. During roadworks, traffic is slowed down, meaning that it will take longer to get somewhere than before the road work commenced. Quite often roadworks, on large stretches of road, like Johnson road could take years to complete. There could be years of even slower traffic.

When the roads works is completed, if it is ever fully completed, there could be a period of a number of years where the traffic flows better and therefore you'll get through that piece of road quicker The Goldilocks period. But not if there are bottle necks at either end. Those that advocate road upgrades, do so on the basis of the Goldilocks period, but fail to acknowledge the non Goldilocks periods.

Then because the road can physically have more cars on it, drivers tend to spread out more, and after a period of time the traffic flow will be back to what it was before the road was upgraded. Even more so when the amount of cars using the upgraded road increases.

If you look at the history of any stretch of road over the last 20 years, around Forestdale, you will see that regardless of the upgrades, unless it's in that Goldilocks period, travel times have increased.

A classic example is the Pacific Highway between the Gold coast and Brisbane. Despite the numerous times it has been upgraded the traffic, especially in the peak HOURS, travels slower than it did in the past

Ther are other compelling reasons not to upgrade Johnson road, other than it will not reduce travel times.

These can be broken down into existing alternatives and future alternatives.

The upgrading of Johnson road will cost millions of dollars. A relatively high cost with no long term benefits.

There are are other alternatives that have relatively little cost but could allow you to get along Johnson road quicker.

As far I no their has been no studies that show that traffic lights improve traffic flow or increase road safety. They appear to do the opposite. The shear fact that they stop cars, often have 4 way cycles and operate based on time and ground loops, rather than lenght of queues means they must create traffic congestion.

Proof of this can be seen, when because of power failures, the traffic flows better with less congestion when they are not operating.

Current software exists, using relatively inexpensive cameras, that can allow smart decisions to be made such that traffic on the major roads, like Johnson Rd, flows better, rather than the present situation where it is done on the basis of timed cycles and ground loops. Ground loops are wires that are in the road surface that are used to sence when a vehicle goes over it.

The next time you are waiting at a red light observe the amount of time that ther are no vehicles going through the other way.

For various reasons ground loops fail and then the software controlling the light goes into a timing sequence such that you can be at a red light with no traffic going the other way. As of writing this is currently happening at the Elliot Court,Johnson Rd intersection.

All other things being equal, the slower vehicles travel the longer they are on a piece of roadway, so more cars on that piece of road for more time. Again all other things being equal the faster vehicles travel on a piece of road the sooner they will not be on that piece of road so overall reducing traffic.

Faster moving vehicles increase the capacity of that piece of road. It's just basic physics.

For a given piece of road the lesser the gap between each vehicle the more vehicles can fit on that road. At any speed that means greater road capacity, without road upgrades. Many drivers leave far more gap than is necessary.

If ALL drivers where super attentive it could be possible to reduce what is currently the acceptable distance between vehicles and improve safety,and so increase road capacity.

It would appear that drives that leave the bigger gaps between vehicles and the agragiate intertentiveness of drivers is reducing road capacity.

When individual drivers start moving, speed up, slow down or stop ther is a constantina effect. So much so that multiple vehicles back, from a vehicle that makes even a small decrease in speed, can end up coming to a completely stop. When vehicles initially start moving, theoretically all following vehicles could start moving at the same time. But that practically never happens, because driver only start moving after the vehicle in front of them starts moving. But if all drivers where super attentive and started moving at the same time the constantina effect could be dramaticly reduced.

This would reduce traffic congestion.

Even though the average motor vehicle can carry 4 people the average number of people within a traveling vehicle is mostly far less than 4. With each vehicle utilizing the vehicles maximum personal carrying capacity, the potential is to reduce traffic by 75%

Whenever there are school holidays traffic on roads is reduced dramatically, possibility because both the elimination of school traffic and people going on holidays so not working.

Starting and finishing times of schools and work in many cases could be altered,thus reducing the amount of traffic on the road at peak times.

During covid it was proven that many people did not have to travel. Quite often, travel is not necessary. With telephones and Internet technology it is possible to talk and see people without actually being in the same physical location, thus reducing the need to travel.

It is quite often thought that someone has to get to a particular place as quickly as possible, yet they have no need need to get to that place quickly. Often is just I want, not a need.

The noise and amenity of those that are living on Johnson road is likely to decrease if the road is upgraded.

Theses are alternatives that could happen in the future that would most likely require changes in legislation.

The technology for self driven vehicles already exists. If all vehicles were self driven there will be no need to own a vehicle. It could be public transport, in individual public owned cars. Computer algorithms could be used to determine which vehicles to move people and goods in the most efficient way. When you needed to get somewhere provided you have indicated so, a vehicle would arrive at the appropriate time and transport you to where you need to go, the vehicle then be used to transport somebody else. An added benefit would be, no need for parking

The present situation whereby individual people make individual decisions completely independent of other people is very inefficient and causes traffic congestion, with underutilization of transportation resources. The average motor vehicle is only used 5% of the time.

Traffic congestion is causing by multiple people wanting to move at approximately the same time. If less people exist, all other things being equal,less people overall or in a particular area equates to less traffic congestion.

Australia without immigration, has negative population growth.

Again, all other things being equal, the more people that are in a particular geographical area the greater to the demand for transportation in that area. But if those people was spread out over a much wider area, the demand in the previous area would decrease.

Australia is a very big country.

The reasons for travel and quicker travel are both logical and emotional. Often emotional decisions have no logic behind them. When there is no logic behind it, laws can reduce the lack of that aggregate logic.

Automotive manufactres, distributors, retailers and the automotive uses associations, have a very big influence on the way society operates. They have a vested interest in maintaining the Status quo. Without breaking that influence traffic congestion is only going to get worse.

As I wrote in my post:

http://greig.homeip.net/doku.php?id=johnson_rd_upgrade

Upgrading roads implies road works, which implies reduced speed limits which means more congestion.

I thought all that road works was finished. I sometimes wonder if they deliberately keep the road work speed limits to show more of the Goldilocks period when they remove the roadworks speed limits.

I also said that I could not find any studies that prove the traffic lights, improved traffic congestion or increase safety.

Unless you coordinate all traffic lights in the whole of Brisbane, coordinating only three of them is not going to work. It just moves the problem to somewhere else.

As I suggest, having traffic lights using cameras with artificial intelligence software, that can see how far back traffic is banked up would be much better than the ground loop and timing that they presently have with traffic lights. Suggest it will be even better than coordinated traffic lights.

http://greig.homeip.net/doku.php?id=johnson_rd_upgrade#other_existing_alternatives

But only one strategy is not enough. Multiple strategies like the ones I suggested in the short and long-term need to be looked at. More so the much bigger picture

Like the influence that the automotive industry has on our lives and that more traffic congestion is actually good for the economy.

As shown in this Google Bard literature review, I asked it to produce: http://greig.homeip.net/doku.php?id=google_bard_road_upgrades_australia#induced_demand_and_congestion_in_australia

traffic congestion in Australia's two largest cities has increased faster than population increase because of induced demand.

I suggest that the same thing would happen in Queensland and in particular the Pacific Highway.

If some of the alternatives to upgrading roads were done rather than upgrading the Pacific Highway it's possible that there would be less congestion on it today

Upgrading any road will not solve the problem of traffic congestion because of induced demand.

See these 2 literature reviews that I ask Google Bard to generate for me:

http://greig.homeip.net/doku.php?id=google_ai_bard_on_upgrading_roads

http://greig.homeip.net/doku.php?id=google_bard_road_upgrades_australia

Removing the tolls on the motorway is is only going to increase the congestion that is already on it.

The idea is to solve problems not move them.