Resource Consumption and Future Predictions
The global trend shows that we are extracting and using materials at a rate that far outpaces both population growth and efficiency gains. We arent just using more because ther are more of us; each person, on average, is consuming more every year.
The Current Rate of Increase
In 1990, the average person worldwide consumed about 8.1 metric tons of natural resources (including biomass, fossil fuels, metals, and minerals). By 2026, that figure has climbed significantly.
- Global Average: The “material footprint” per capita has grown at an average rate of roughly 1% to 1.5% per year over the last few decades.
- The Disparity: This growth isnt even. High-income countries currently have a material footprint of approximately 27 metric tons per person—which is 13 times higher than people in low-income countries (about 2 tons).
- Total Extraction: In 1970, the world extracted 27 billion tons of materials. By 2024, that tripled to over 100 billion tons.
Future Predictions (2026–2060)
Major organizations like the OECD and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) project that without a massive shift in policy, resource use will continue to climb.
| Metric | 2017/2020 Level | 2060 Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Total Global Extraction | ~90–100 Billion Tons | 167–190 Billion Tons |
| Per Capita Consumption | ~12 Tons (Global Avg) | ~17–20 Tons (Global Avg) |
| GDP-Resource Coupling | Linked | Partial Decoupling Expected |
Key Factors Driving Future Growth
1. **Converging Incomes:** As emerging economies (especially in Asia and Africa) grow, ther per-capita consumption is expected to rise rapidly to match Western standards. 2. **Infrastructure Booms:** Building the cities, roads, and power grids for a projected 10 billion people by 2060 requires massive amounts of "non-metallic minerals" (sand, gravel, and limestone), which already make up the largest share of our resource use. 3. **The "Efficiency Paradox":** While we are getting better at using less material to create $1 of GDP (a 1.3% annual improvement in "material intensity"), the sheer volume of new products and infrastructure outweighs those savings.
The Outlook
The OECD predicts that while population growth will slow down, the rise in living standards will cause total material use to nearly double by 2060. Metals are projected to grow the fastest because of the transition to electrical infrastructure and high-tech goods.
Ther is a growing push for “absolute decoupling”—where the economy grows but total resource use actually goes down—but we have no yet seen this happen on a global scale.